Trump's Troubles
Would a Third Party Work?
You might think Donald Trump is on top of the world right now. He carried out a successful military strike that, he claims, obliterated Iran’s nuclear arsenal. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the ability of federal judges to act as a check and balance on his power. He convinced NATO allies to increase their military spending.
But President Trump is confronting problems on two fronts. One is his lagging support from the voters. The other is a growing split in the Republican Party between his own MAGA supporters and traditional conservatives over his economic policies.
President Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities looks like a textbook example of how to carry out a military action. The Washington Post described it as ``a hard punch and a fast exit.’’ The objective was to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability with as little collateral damage as possible. No casualties on either side. No ground troops. No regime change. No nation-building. The Trump Administration seemed determined to avoid the mistakes that got the U.S. involved in ``forever wars’’ in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.
President Trump had his mammoth military parade and birthday celebration two weeks ago, but it was accompanied by the largest nationwide public protest (``No Kings’’) this country has ever seen. Newsweek reports that, after President Trump’s approval ratings plunged when he announced his tariffs back in April, then recovered briefly, ``his recent actions appear to have reignited public frustration with the White House.’’ As of June 28, ``Donald Trump’s approval rating has dropped to an all-time low.’’
After the U.S. strikes on the Iranian nuclear sites, a CNN poll showed that a majority of Americans disapproved of U.S. military action in Iran. The strikes were a military success but not a political triumph.
According to the New York Times, the daily average of President Trump’s overall approval ratings from different polling organizations (``how he is handling his job as President’’) as of July 1 was 44 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval.
The Quinnipiac University poll after the military strikes showed widespread unhappiness with all of President Trump’s policies. His handling of foreign policy? The public disapproves, 54 to 40 percent. The Israel-Iran war? Disapprove, 53 to 39 percent. The economy? Disapprove, 56 to 39 percent. Trade? Disapprove, 55 to 38 percent.
Since the beginning of his second term, the voters have been most supportive of his policies on immigration. Immigration was the main issue that got Trump elected last year. Now even those marks have turned negative. The Silver Bulletin publishes ``an updating average of President Trump’s second-term issue approval polls.’’ The latest update (as of July 1) shows Trump’s approval rating on handling immigration turning negative (disapproval over approval, -3.8%), although the Trump Administration still gets better marks on immigration than on the economy (-12.3%), trade (-14.0%) and inflation (-23.8%).
In the Quinnipiac poll, voters said they disapprove of Trump’s decision to send National Guard troops to respond to protests in Los Angeles (55 to 43%). The poll found even higher disapproval of his decision to send U.S. Marines to Los Angeles (60 to 37%). What about the way U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (known as ``ICE’’) is handling deportations? Voters disapprove, 56 to 39 percent.
And 55 percent of voters say they oppose the Republican tax and spending bill – President Trump’s ``One Big Beautiful Bill’’ (OBBB) – that’s now making its way through Congress.
A lot of Americans really don’t like President Trump personally. In polls by YouGov since 2016, most Americans have consistently registered an unfavorable personal opinion of Trump. Particularly women. The June Quinnipiac poll shows 51 percent of men but only 30 percent of women expressing a favorable view of President Trump.
Elon Musk – the richest person in the world -- is threatening to form a third party (``the America Party’’) if the Republican Congress passes Trump’s ``One Big Beautiful Bill’’ and President Trump signs it into law. Musk’s big complaint, which is shared by many Republicans, is the 3 to 4 trillion dollars the OBBB would add to the national debt (mostly by extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts).
The debt issue is splitting the Republican Party, although few Republicans in Congress are daring to vote against the budget bill because Trump can threaten them with a Republican primary opponent and end their careers. Concern about the national debt has always been a driving issue for older Republicans. But not so much for mostly younger MAGA Republicans who are totally loyal to Trump. Very few MAGA stalwarts are likely to abandon Trump for the America Party if he signs the OBBB into law. And there aren’t enough billionaires to form their own party.
Musk is popular with Republicans mostly because of his service to Trump. If Musk were to run America Party candidates for Congress against both Republicans and Democrats, they would probably split the Republican vote and help Democratic candidates win. When Ross Perot ran for president as an Independent in 1992, the national debt was one of his main issues. A lot of Republicans believe Perot took Republican votes from George H.W. Bush and helped elect Democrat Bill Clinton, although the evidence is not conclusive.
The rule is that a third party can win only if the two major parties split. Republican Abraham Lincoln got elected in 1860 when both the Whigs and the Democrats split over the slavery issue. Democrats may split, but it would not be over the national debt. Democrats are furious at President Trump because they see his authoritarian tendencies as a threat to democracy. In the June Quinnipiac poll, respondents ranked preserving democracy as the country’s most urgent issue, eclipsing the economy.
Many New York City Democrats voted for Socialist Zorhan Mamdani in the June 24 Democratic primary for mayor because they wanted a full-throated opponent of Trump. President Trump has called Mamdani ``a pure, true communist.’’ Mamdani’s response? ``I’m fighting for the very working people he ran a campaign to empower, that he has since then betrayed.’’ Still, it’s hard to see how a Muslim socialist could sway many voters to support third party candidates and take votes away from Democrats.
The best wisdom about third parties in U.S. politics was offered by intellectual historian Richard Hofstadter. ``Third parties are like bees,’’ Hofstadter wrote in 1955. ``Once they have stung, they die.’’